雅思阅读真题（Part 3）
未来学：预测未来的科学与艺术
本篇也叫：未来学、预测未来、未来预测、futurology、未来学文章、雅思阅读未来学
Part 3 · 考频：中频 · 最近考试：2026.1.31
本篇为雅思阅读真题（Part 3）《The long view》，共 12 题，2026.1.31雅思考试真题回忆，页面提供完整原文、题目、答案与解析，并支持在线机考模式免费练习。本页同时提供 Markdown 版本 供 AI 助手与搜索引擎直接读取。
文章探讨未来学（futurology）这门预测未来的科学，追溯其从古希腊神谕到现代商业与政府应用的历史，介绍壳牌石油公司对未来生活的研究、苏格兰议会举办的未来学家会议，以及未来学家Eamonn Kelly提出的科学、技艺与艺术三大预测要素。
Climate change, moon bases, cybercrime: we all know the predictions, but how are they made? One expert explains the science of futurology
A
The business of predicting the future has a long history. Several millennia ago in ancient Greece, people would consult Apollo, the god of prophecy, to learn if fortune favoured their chosen course of action. The tradition has changed considerably since then. Today, futurology is a science that drives a thriving business - its three main consumers being the military, big business and national governments. Modern futurists do not predict that a certain event will occur at a particular time. Instead they look at what is happening now to see what this may lead to further down the line. Alternatively, they start with a desired result and work out how people and organisations can be manoeuvred into realising that ambition.
B
The oil company Shell has been one of the major producers of future studies. It recently published a comprehensive study looking at how people may live in 2020 and 2050, given the type of energy which is purchased. Philip Watts from Shell says, 'This is not an exercise in prophecy. Rather it is designed to challenge our thinking so that we can make better choices in today’s business world.'
C
The short-term attitudes and bureaucracy of many governments can be frustrating to futurists, but this mutual wariness is slowly changing. The Scottish Parliament recently hosted a conference of 150 futurists from across the globe. The parliament is setting up a forum to look at where Scotland is heading in the next 20 years. Among the issues are demographics and economic competition within Europe and with Asia. It’s a first for the United Kingdom, although not for Europe - this strategy has already been put into practice in Finland.
D
Eamonn Kelly, head of the San Francisco-based Global Business Network futurist group, was one of those who attended the conference. According to Kelly, 'There are many different tools a futurist can employ but essentially there are three main ingredients. First, there is the “science”, which can encompass everything from environmental studies to psychology. Then, there is the “craft”, which may include interviews and the creation of maps of cause and effect. Finally, there is the “art”, the intuitive ability to meld all this into a coherent whole.
E
Dr James Canton is founder of the San Francisco-based Institute for Global Futures and has been an adviser to leading US companies. Like many futurists he started in the private sector but is also comfortable in academia and has an urge to change things for the better. 'A futurist is an alchemist who mixes the qualitative,' he says. 'He needs intuition and has to work with people from a range of academic backgrounds gathering primary evidence about what motivates people. Futurists are constantly discussing ideas with their peers, but they do not simply surf the net picking up on the latest fad.'
F
New Zealand futurist Robin Gunston says, 'I don’t believe you can train yourself to become a futurist. A certain amount of this is to do with how your brain is hard-wired and we know this is difficult to change. Futurology requires extensive life experience and a broad education to test theories against. Much of modern teenage culture is about me, what I want and what the world owes me - that does not make it easy to see different kinds of futures and pose the hard questions about how we will get there.'
G
Those best able to respond to futurists are the most agile. 'Large corporations beholden to shareholders and governments burdened by bureaucracy are often simply too slow. Asian companies tend to be better prepared because they take a longer perspective. Sony, for example, is very forward looking,' Canton says. 'There will be sunset and sunrise nations and corporations, in terms of prosperity in the 21st century. The winners will be those corporations and governments which conduct future studies and take steps to become future-proofed.'
H
According to Alan Beckley, a former West Mercia chief inspector and past president of the Police Futurists International (PFI), getting public bodies in the UK future-proofed could be a long process. 'People are concerned about the methodology and the reliability of future studies,' he says. 'They are more likely to follow their political masters than go to them and say, “We have done this scenario, and this is what we should do”.' However, as the Scottish Parliament has shown, there are a few examples of government exercises. Also, in 2003 Britain’s Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) published for the first time its strategic thinking for the next decade. This document was drawn up with the help of in-house and outside futurists. FCO minister Bill Rammell says, 'We do occasionally look further ahead than the next ten years on issues such as demographics. But the period chosen for the strategy was deliberately a decade. Even assumptions about technology get very shaky beyond that.'
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答案：Dr James Canton
原文定位：Those best able to respond to futurists are the most agile. Large corporations;are often simply too slow. Asian companies tend to be better prepared because they take a longer perspective
同义替换：「Flexible organisations」↔「the most agile」，「make use of futurology」↔「respond to futurists」
答案：Bill Rammell
原文定位：Even assumptions about technology get very shaky beyond that
同义替换：「cannot be trusted」↔「very shaky」
答案：Robin Gunston
原文定位：I don’t believe you can train yourself to become a futurist. A certain amount of this is to do with how your brain is hard-wired and we know this is difficult to change
同义替换：「Only certain people are suited」↔「cannot be trained, brain is hard-wired」
答案：Philip Watts
原文定位：This is not an exercise in prophecy. Rather it is designed to challenge our thinking so that we can make better choices in today’s business world
同义替换：「inform current commercial decisions」↔「make better choices in today’s business world」
答案：Dr James Canton
原文定位：Futurists are constantly discussing ideas with their peers, but they do not simply surf the net picking up on the latest fad
同义替换：「broad exchange of information」↔「discussing ideas with their peers」，「every new idea」↔「picking up on the latest fad」
答案：Steve Brant
原文定位：We have much more influence over what the future will be like than many of us realise
同义替换：「not aware」↔「do not realise」，「determine the future」↔「have influence over what the future will be like」
答案：Alan Beckley
原文定位：People are concerned about the methodology and the reliability of future studies
同义替换：「lack of confidence」↔「concerned about reliability」
答案：energy
原文定位：It recently published a comprehensive study looking at how people may live in 2020 and 2050, given the type of energy which is purchased
同义替换：「A report by Shell」↔「a comprehensive study」，「considered the impact of」↔「looking at」，「various kinds of」↔「the type of」，「future lifestyles」↔「how people may live」
答案：economic competition
原文定位：Among the issues are demographics and economic competition within Europe and with Asia
同义替换：「advise on」↔「looking at the issues」，「from Asian and other European countries」↔「within Europe and with Asia」
答案：private sector
原文定位：Like many futurists he started in the private sector but is also comfortable in academia
同义替换：「similar to」↔「Like」，「began」↔「started」
答案：demographics
原文定位：We do occasionally look further ahead than the next ten years on issues such as demographics
同义替换：「studies developments」↔「look further ahead」，「areas like」↔「issues such as」，「beyond 10 years」↔「further ahead than the next ten years」
答案：Present-day futurology can focus on achieving a particular outcome.,Futurists need to talk to people from various areas of expertise.,Conducting future studies can affect whether a company continues to be successful.
原文定位：Alternatively, they start with a desired result and work out how people and organisations can be manoeuvred into realising that ambition;He needs intuition and has to work with people from a range of academic backgrounds gathering primary evidence about what motivates people;The winners will be those corporations and governments which conduct future studies and take steps to become future-proofed
同义替换：「present-day」↔「modern」，「focus on achieving a particular outcome」↔「start with a desired result」，「talk to people from various areas of expertise」↔「work with people from a range of academic backgrounds」，「affects whether a company continues to be successful」↔「determine winners」